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AdvertisementIt could be all about recessionsSince the 1950s, whenever the US economy fell into a recession, the rate of working men tended to suffer a lasting blow. AdvertisementWhy have recessions appeared to have such a lasting impact on working men? The strong recovery of men working after the pandemic recession could be due to the unique nature of this downturn — which tanked an otherwise healthy economy. And of course, some lucky prime-age men aren't working because they've had a lot of financial success — and already retired. Deciphering how much these explanations have fueled the decline of working men could be worthy of further explanation, the economists said.
Persons: , It's, Abigail Wozniak, Wozniak, David Autor, There's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama's, Elise Gould, Gould, aren't, we've, John M, Coglianese, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington Post, of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, BLS, Economic, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve
Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.
Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
"I was still living below my means and then investing that larger proportional difference," she said. Those raises helped Tu invest and grow her wealth more quickly. Why both saving and investing are criticalTu's mindset shift is one other women can learn from. Lifelong saving and investing are both critical for women, according to Boston-based certified financial planner Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory. Leaving the workforce reduces earnings and the chance to save and invest for retirement, Valega said.
Persons: Vivian Tu, Heidi Gutman, Tu, Catherine Valega, Valega Organizations: Green Bee, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Locations: Boston
Go beyond financial literacy"Gone are the days that we can hide behind the illusion that more financial literacy is enough," says Rahkim Sabree, AFC, financial therapist and counselor. Currently, 25 states require financial literacy education for students; however, rarely, if ever, does financial literacy address larger systemic issues that exist. Black students owe an average of 188% more than what white students borrowed by the fourth year after graduation. One 2016 study found that if current trends continue, closing the wealth gap would take more than 200 years. AdvertisementYounger Black Americans have now become the fastest-growing demographic of new investors in the stock market.
Persons: , Martin Luther King, Jr, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick, Ulrike I, Rahkim Sabree, We've, Kristin Afelumo, Lazetta Rainey Braxton, Braxton Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Black, National Bureau of Economic Research, Economic Policy Institute, AFC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Netflix, Lazetta, Associates Locations: America, Evanston , Illinois, Black
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, May 22, 2023. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that he expects the central bank to cut rates only a few times this year, contrary to market expectations. "We just need to look at the actual inflation data to guide us," Kashkari said. He added that there are "compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward." Kashkari said the trend indicates that interest rates may not be exerting as much pressure on the economy as expected.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, CBS, Market, Minneapolis Fed, Labor Locations: New York City , New York, Minneapolis
Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, during an interview in New York on Nov. 7, 2023. Interest rates running at their highest levels in about 23 years are not hurting the economy and could buy policymakers more time before deciding whether to cut, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday. In an essay released on the central bank's website, Kashkari said economic developments have shown that Fed policy is not as restrictive on growth as it appears on the surface. That means the longer-run "neutral" rate, or the level that is neither restrictive nor stimulative, is probably higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic. Markets have been betting on an aggressive move lower, but recent statements from central bank officials indicate little need to hurry.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis Federal Locations: New York
But significantly improving a recipient's housing situation might only be possible in a longer-term program or with larger payments, the researchers found. And the cash transfers did not cause recipients to work less , a common concern with basic income programs, the report found. A growing landscape of basic income experimentsLocal and state governments across the country are experimenting with guaranteed basic income programs, often targeting the region's most vulnerable residents, including new and expecting mothers and the lowest-income families. AdvertisementRecipients of a year-long basic income program in Austin, Texas, used most of the cash on housing costs and became "substantially more housing secure," according to surveys. "One of the undergirding premises of basic income programs, in general, is giving folks the decision-making latitude to choose for themselves where that money goes," Palmer said.
Persons: Vanessa Palmer, Andrew Goodman, Bacon, Palmer, Organizations: Minneapolis who've, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve's Center, Indian Country Development, Federal, Opportunity, Growth Institute, Urban Institute, Harvard, The New York Times, Department of Housing, Urban Development Locations: Minneapolis, Twin Cities, Austin , Texas, Washington ,, San Francisco
Fellow Governor Michelle Bowman said she took the recent Gross Domestic Product number as evidence the economy not only "remained strong," but might have gained speed and requires a higher Fed policy rate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 56.94 points, or 0.17%, to 34,152.8; the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.40 points, or 0.28 %, at 4,378.38 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 121.08 points, or 0.90 %, at 13,639.86. The S&P 500 (.SPX) scored its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) recording its eighth straight advance, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The Dow gained for a seventh straight session, its longest since a 13-session run in July. The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 48 new highs and 145 new lows.
Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, Brendan McDermid, Dow, Lorie Logan, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, . Energy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Uber Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, New York City
Both Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also refused to rule out rate cuts. The pullback in yields helped lift megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O), up 1.5%, and Apple (AAPL.O), up 1.7%, as the biggest boosts to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Also due to speak on Tuesday was New York Fed President John Williams. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is on pace for its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) on track to rise for the eighth day in a row, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 132 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, John Williams, Dow, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, Energy, New York Fed, Uber Technologies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, Bengaluru
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Market participants will parse commentary from Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams later on Tuesday for more clues on the central bank's interest rate path. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, energy (.SPNY) led declines tracking a 2% fall in crude prices on mixed economic data from China. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.30-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.55-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 12 new highs and 48 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Sam Stovall, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Jerome Powell's, Stovall, Wall, advancers, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, CFRA Research, Treasury, U.S, Fed, New York Fed, Dow Jones, Uber Technologies, Mongodb, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bengaluru
Tuesday data showing a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September contributed to the euro's weakness, said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial market analyst at City Index. The euro, like most other currencies, gained sharply on the dollar last week as a series of data points - most notably U.S. data from Friday showing job growth slowed in October - sent the U.S. unit lower. The dollar fell 1.4% last week, its steepest decline since mid-July, a sharp reversal after a recent run higher. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the U.S. central bank likely has more work ahead to control inflation. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fiona Cincotta, Chester Ntonifor, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, Kong, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Sam Holmes, Miral Fahmy, Edmund Klamann, Kim Coghill, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, PMI, Federal, Treasury, BCA Research, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, Bank, Australian, Commonwealth Bank of, Aussie, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, LONDON, U.S, Australia, Tokyo, Singapore, London
Fed’s Neel Kashkari Not Convinced Rate Hikes Are Over
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Bob Fernandez | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said he has concerns about inflation “ticking up again. That’s what I’m worried about.” Photo: MIKE SEGAR/REUTERSA top Federal Reserve official said he would err on the side of overtightening monetary policy rather than not doing enough to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. “Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time,” Neel Kashkari , the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, MIKE SEGAR, Undertightening, ” Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of, , REUTERS, Federal, Wall Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Dollar steady as risk rally eases, RBA in focus
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. The Australian dollar was 0.23% lower at $0.6474, but remained close to the three-month peak of $0.6523 touched on Monday. "I think the RBA will probably reiterate its tightening bias," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "But I think it's still too early to say the latest easing in the dollar will be sustained. The yen hit 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Powell, CBA's, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Tokyo, Singapore
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, attends an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, U.S., May 22, 2023. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that the U.S. central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation. “The economy has proved to be really resilient even though we’ve raised interest rates a lot over the past couple of years. Kashkari's comments suggested he is still leaning toward raising interest rates again. But with price pressures falling, many in markets believe the Fed is done with raising rates.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Mike Segar, we’ve, Kashkari, Michael S, Leslie Adler, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, REUTERS, Fox News, Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, New York
A man walking past the Reserve Bank of Australia in the central business district of Sydney on June 7, 2022. The dollar was steady on Tuesday, holding overnight gains as investors took a breather from a risk rally, while the Australian currency drifted lower ahead of a central bank interest rates decision later in the day. All eyes in Asian hours will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, snapping four months of on hold policy decisions. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the U.S. central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation. The yen hit 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.
Persons: Carol Kong, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Powell, CBA's, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, Bank of Japan Locations: Sydney, Tokyo
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari doused hopes of early rate cuts late on Monday, saying the central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation. Market participants will parse commentary from Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams later on Tuesday for more clues on the central bank's interest rate path. Uncertainty about the timing of potential rate cuts and some dismal corporate forecasts for the fourth quarter have cast a doubt on whether there could be a year-end rally for stocks. ET, Dow e-minis were down 106 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14.5 points, or 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 43.25 points, or 0.28%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Jerome Powell's, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Treasury, U.S, Fed, New York Fed, Swissquote Bank, EBay, Dow e, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Intel, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, U.S., May 22, 2023. "It's certainly possible that higher long-term yields may do some of the work for us in terms of bringing inflation back down," Kashkari said in a town hall hosted by Minot State University. "But if those higher long-term yields are higher because their expectations about what we're going to do has changed, then we might actually need to follow through in their expectations in order to maintain those yields." Asked about the chances that inflation falls back to the Fed's 2% goal but the unemployment rate does not rise sharply -- the so-called soft landing for the economy -- Kashkari said it's looking "favorable." Still, he cautioned, if the economy stays too strong, the Fed may need to raise rates further to slow it, risking a harder landing.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Mike Segar, Kashkari, It's, Ann Saphir, Leslie Adler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, REUTERS, Reserve, Minot State University, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Minneapolis
Dollar sticks near 10-month high, keeping heat on yen
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The dollar clung near a 10-month high against a basket of its peers on Thursday, keeping the yen under pressure near a key intervention zone as investors size up upbeat U.S. economic data and fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later on Thursday, giving markets further clues into the future path of U.S. monetary policy. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, hovered around 106.58, after hitting 106.84 overnight, the highest level since Nov. 30. The dollar/yen pair tends to be extremely sensitive to changes in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly at the 10-year maturity.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Kyle Rodda, Tony Sycamore, Brigid Riley, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Fed, U.S, Treasury, IG, Thomson Locations: U.S
"I'm one of those folks," said Kashkari, who is considered one of the Fed's more hawkish policymakers. Kashkari said that if inflation cools next year as expected, the Fed will need to cut rates to keep policy from tightening too much. But he also said he has been surprised by how well consumer spending has held up despite the Fed's rate hikes so far. "Everybody on the Federal Open Market Committee is committed" to bringing inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target, he said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was 3.3% in July.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Mike Segar, Kashkari, Ann Saphir, Himani Sarkar, Muralikumar Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, REUTERS, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Wharton School of Business, Fed, U.S, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Minneapolis
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, attends an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, U.S., May 22, 2023. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari thinks there's nearly a 50-50 chance that interest rates will need to move significantly higher to bring down inflation. In that instance, the inflation rate falls but stays above the Fed's 2% target, posing a challenge for policymakers. Noting that rate-sensitive areas such as housing and autos have held strong despite Fed tightening, Kashkari remarked, "These dynamics raise the question, How tight is policy right now? Services inflation, excluding the cost of renting shelter, has been coming down, but has otherwise remained elevated, raising longer-term concerns.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, there's, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, Minneapolis Federal Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Minneapolis
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, May 22, 2023. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari favors getting tougher on regional banks, following a crisis earlier this year that he said may not be over. Regional bank shares fell as Kashkari spoke. Those banks holding longer-dated Treasurys faced capital losses as rates went up and bond prices fell. Should the Fed have to keep raising rates, that could affect banks in the same situation.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Treasurys Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, Minneapolis Federal, Regional Banking, Troubled Asset Relief, Bank Locations: New York City , New York, Minneapolis
Experts say bias in the appraisal process is the reason for the gap, but change may be coming. That's not surprising, considering 95% of appraisers in Philadelphia — a majority nonwhite city — are white, a report by the Philadelphia Home Appraisal Bias Task Force found. "It's like a flight simulator for appraisers," Swinney said. Right now, Pennsylvania is among the 42 states that have signaled PAREA is an acceptable model for training appraisers. As a City Council member, she formed the Home Appraisal Bias Task Force, which produced a report with recommendations for and data on appraisal bias in the city.
Persons: Deborah Spence, Laura Eaton, Philadelphia Spence, That's, Brad Swinney, Swinney, you've, they're, Appraisers, Cherelle Parker, Philadelphia's, she's, Parker, Spence, we've, We've Organizations: Service, , Brookings, Federal Reserve Bank of, Data USA, Pennsylvania Department, State, Democratic, Council, Force Locations: Pennsylvania, Wall, Silicon, Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, America, appraisers, Philly
Washington, DC CNN —Florida is America’s inflation hotspot, thanks to a persistent problem with sky-high housing costs. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area has the highest inflation rate of metro areas with more than 2.5 million residents, with a 9% inflation rate for the 12 months ended in April. Urban Hawaii had the second lowest inflation rate at 2% — mirroring the Federal Reserve’s target for its preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. A vexing inflation problem in the Sunshine StateIn Florida, the state’s growing population has been pushing up inflation — particularly via housing costs. Even though the Twin Cities’ inflation rate is currently the lowest among major cities, it might not feel that way to residents, Schipper said.
Persons: That’s, , Amanda Phalin, Phalin, , ” Phalin, Paul, Tyler Schipper, Thomas, Schipper, “ You’re, Latoya Rogers, Kaiji Chen Organizations: DC CNN, Fort, Consumer, Labor Department, Urban, Sunshine State, University of Florida, Labor, Tampa, University of St, of Labor Statistics, CPI, Twin, Federal Reserve Bank of, Fed, Cub, Costco, Sam’s, Atlanta, Emory University Locations: Washington, Florida, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Tampa, St, Petersburg, Clearwater, Minneapolis, Urban Hawaii, Sunshine State In Florida, New York, Tampa Bay, , Twin Cities, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis ’, Midwest, Minnesota, Cities, Atlanta, Sandy Springs, Roswell,
Earlier this month, Chairman Jay Powell said the Fed's monetary policy and financial stability tools were "working well together," allowing it to support banks and pursue price stability. But several people in the market believe not only is the regional banking sector still under stress, multiple other risks to financial stability also remain. Tighter monetary policy could well cause them to blow up or worsen the impact of other shocks, such as debt ceiling negotiations. "The Fed has no desire to conduct monetary policy through financial crises," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. In its most recent financial stability report earlier this month, the Fed listed several areas of concern, including life insurance and some types of bond and loan funds.
But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.
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